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Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
23/1301Z from Region 3723 (S18E67). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 377 km/s at 23/0544Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 23/0730Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
23/0731Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 408 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (24 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jun 196 Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 190/190/190 90 Day Mean 23 Jun 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 007/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/06/10 | X1.55 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/07/01 | M2.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/06/28 | Kp8- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| مايو ٢٠٢٤ | 171.7 +35.2 |
| Last 30 days | 155.8 +6.7 |