Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 Jun 29 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

النشاط الشمسي

24 h Summary

Solar activity was at low levels. Only low-level C-class X-ray activity was observed during the past 24 hours. Of the 12 numbered active regions with spots, only minor changes were observed in the regions. Two new areas of emerging flux were observed in the NE hemisphere in the lower latitudes. They will be assigned active region numbers if they persist. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) over 29 Jun - 01 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 29 Jun - 01 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels through 01 Jul.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters reflected the waning effects from CME passage. Total magnetic field strength decreased from a peak of 24 nT to ~9 nT by the end of the reporting period. Bz was mostly northward with the exception of a brief period that reached as far south -17 nT around 28/1206 UTC. Solar wind speeds varied between 400-500 km/s throughout the past 24 hours.

Forecast

Waning CME-enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to continue over 29 Jun, with nominal levels likely to return on 30 Jun. An additional solar wind enhancement is likely on 01 Jul due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the Sun over 26-27 Jun.

Geospace

24 h Summary

Geomagnetic field activity reached G4 (Severe) storm levels following the arrival of the 24 Jun CME.

Forecast

Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely over 29 Jun due to residual enhancements following the passage of the 24 Jun CME. Quiet and unsettled conditions are expected on 30 Jun. Periods of active conditions are expected on 01 Jul due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs from 26-27 Jun.