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Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
22/0855Z from Region 3716 (N10W72). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 377 km/s at 21/2144Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
22/1531Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
21/2107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 772 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jun 196 Predicted 23 Jun-25 Jun 190/185/190 90 Day Mean 22 Jun 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 008/010-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/06/10 | X1.55 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/07/01 | M2.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/06/28 | Kp8- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| مايو ٢٠٢٤ | 171.7 +35.2 |
| Last 30 days | 155.8 +6.7 |