توقعات لمدة 3 أيام

Issued: 2024 Jun 29 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 8 (NOAA Scale G4).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 29-Jul 01 2024 is 4 (.67NOAA Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Jun 29       Jun 30       Jul 01
00-03UT       4.33         3.33         2.33     
03-06UT       2.67         2.67         1.67     
06-09UT       2.33         2.33         2.67     
09-12UT       2.67         1.67         2.67     
12-15UT       2.67         1.33         2.33     
15-18UT       4.67 (G1)    1.00         3.00     
18-21UT       1.67         1.33         4.00     
21-00UT       2.67         1.67         4.00     

Rationale

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are possible on 29 Jun due to waning CME effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 29-Jul 01 2024

              Jun 29  Jun 30  Jul 01
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 29-Jul 01 2024

              Jun 29        Jun 30        Jul 01
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale

There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 29 Jun - 01 Jul.