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Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
14/0432Z from Region 3712 (S24E25). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun,
17 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 379 km/s at 14/1523Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/1431Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
14/1011Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3 pfu at 14/0650Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 119 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (15 Jun, 16 Jun) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 169 Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 14 Jun 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 005/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 010/012-013/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 50% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2024/06/10 | X1.55 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/07/01 | M2.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/06/28 | Kp8- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
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| مايو ٢٠٢٤ | 171.7 +35.2 |
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