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Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
13/1645Z from Region 3713 (S13E54). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun,
16 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 364 km/s at 12/2322Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8 pfu at 13/0615Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 106 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jun) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (14 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 170 Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 13 Jun 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 006/005-010/012-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 50% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2024/06/10 | X1.55 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/07/01 | M2.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/06/28 | Kp8- (G4) |
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| مايو ٢٠٢٤ | 171.7 +35.2 |
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