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Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
11/0443Z from Region 3697 (S19W0*). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13 Jun, 14 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 720 km/s at 11/0233Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 10/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
10/2357Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 10/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 131 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13 Jun, 14 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jun 165 Predicted 12 Jun-14 Jun 165/160/155 90 Day Mean 11 Jun 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun 015/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 008/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2024/06/10 | X1.55 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/07/01 | M2.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/06/28 | Kp8- (G4) |
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| مايو ٢٠٢٤ | 171.7 +35.2 |
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