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Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
10/1108Z from Region 3697 (S19W92). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (11 Jun) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (12 Jun)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (13 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 484 km/s at 10/1022Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 10/1655Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
10/1650Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10 pfu at 09/2120Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (12 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (13
Jun). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (11 Jun),
have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (12 Jun) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (13 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jun to 13 Jun
| Class M | 70% | 65% | 50% |
| Class X | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Proton | 50% | 25% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jun 178 Predicted 11 Jun-13 Jun 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 10 Jun 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 015/020-009/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun to 13 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/06/10 | X1.55 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/07/01 | M2.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/06/28 | Kp8- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| مايو ٢٠٢٤ | 171.7 +35.2 |
| Last 30 days | 155.8 +6.7 |