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Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
25/1726Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 May, 27 May,
28 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 444 km/s at 25/1744Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
24/2226Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
25/1627Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 230 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (27 May, 28 May).
III. Event Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 May 152 Predicted 26 May-28 May 145/145/150 90 Day Mean 25 May 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May 010/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/06/10 | X1.55 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/07/03 | M1.5 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/06/28 | Kp8- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| مايو ٢٠٢٤ | 171.7 +35.2 |
| يوليو ٢٠٢٤ | 192 +20.3 |
| Last 30 days | 153 -3.7 |