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Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
24/0706Z from Region 3679 (S08W86). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (25 May,
26 May) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (27 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 426 km/s at 24/0940Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 23/2348Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
24/0405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 225 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 May), quiet to active
levels on day two (26 May) and quiet levels on day three (27 May).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one and two (25 May, 26 May).
III. Event Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 May 163 Predicted 25 May-27 May 160/150/150 90 Day Mean 24 May 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May 012/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 012/012-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 40% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/06/10 | X1.55 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/07/03 | M1.5 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/06/28 | Kp8- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| مايو ٢٠٢٤ | 171.7 +35.2 |
| يوليو ٢٠٢٤ | 192 +20.3 |
| Last 30 days | 153 -3.7 |