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Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
27/0428Z from Region 3729 (S03E52). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun, 30 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 358 km/s at 27/0832Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 27/1134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
27/2025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 135 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (28 Jun, 29
Jun) and quiet levels on day three (30 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jun 183 Predicted 28 Jun-30 Jun 182/182/182 90 Day Mean 27 Jun 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 010/012-014/015-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 60% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/06/10 | X1.55 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/07/03 | M1.5 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/06/28 | Kp8- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| مايو ٢٠٢٤ | 171.7 +35.2 |
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| Last 30 days | 153 -3.7 |