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Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
05/0856Z from Region 3697 (S18W33). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(06 Jun, 07 Jun, 08 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 511 km/s at 05/0551Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
05/0753Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/1528Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 131 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Jun, 07 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (08 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun, 08 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jun 195 Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 195/200/200 90 Day Mean 05 Jun 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/06/10 | X1.55 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/07/03 | M1.5 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/06/28 | Kp8- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| مايو ٢٠٢٤ | 171.7 +35.2 |
| يوليو ٢٠٢٤ | 192 +20.3 |
| Last 30 days | 153 -3.7 |