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Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
03/1411Z from Region 3695 (N27W47). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jun, 05
Jun, 06 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 371 km/s at 03/2043Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
03/1638Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
03/1629Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 134 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (04 Jun), quiet to
active levels on day two (05 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (06
Jun). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (04 Jun, 05 Jun, 06 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jun 186 Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 185/185/180 90 Day Mean 03 Jun 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 012/018-015/016-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 45% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/06/10 | X1.55 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/07/03 | M1.5 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/06/28 | Kp8- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| مايو ٢٠٢٤ | 171.7 +35.2 |
| يوليو ٢٠٢٤ | 192 +20.3 |
| Last 30 days | 153 -3.7 |