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Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
29/1437Z from Region 3697 (S18E56). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 May, 31
May, 01 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 480 km/s at 29/0946Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
29/1413Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/1741Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 288 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 May) and quiet to
major storm levels on days two and three (31 May, 01 Jun). Protons have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30
May, 31 May, 01 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 May 171 Predicted 30 May-01 Jun 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 29 May 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 009/008-014/025-018/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 35% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 25% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 75% | 75% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/06/10 | X1.55 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/07/03 | M1.5 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/06/28 | Kp8- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| مايو ٢٠٢٤ | 171.7 +35.2 |
| يوليو ٢٠٢٤ | 192 +20.3 |
| Last 30 days | 155.5 +1.5 |