Peržiūrimas šeštadienis, birželio 21. 2003
Saulės aktyvumo pranešimas
Šioje ataskaitoje paminėtiems Saulės žybsniams taikomas Kosminių orų prognozių centro (SWPC) nustatytas mastelio koeficientas. Dėl SWPC mastelio koeficiento Saulės žybsniai pateikiami 42 % mažesni nei mokslinės kokybės duomenyse. Mūsų archyvuotuose Saulės žybsnių duomenyse mastelio koeficientas buvo pašalintas, kad atspindėtų tikruosius fizikinius vienetus.
Saulės geofizinio aktyvumo ataskaita 2003 Jun 21 2200 UTC
Parengė NOAA © SWPC ir apdorojo SpaceWeatherLive.comBendra USAF/NOAA Saulės ir geofizinio aktyvumo ataskaita
SDF numeris 172 Išleistas 2200Z ir 21 Jun 2003
IA. Aktyvių Saulės regionų ir Saulės aktyvumo nuo 20-2100Z iki 21-2100Z analizė
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 388 (S03W19)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C2.5/Sf that occurred at
21/1313Z along with many lesser flares during the interval. This
region showed rapid growth during the period with a more than
doubling of the penumbral coverage. Region 386 (S07E04) produced
several lesser C-class flares today and has been in a steady decay
phase since yesterday. The delta magnetic structure is still intact
in the leading edge of the spot cluster. Region 387 (N18E23) was
fairly quiescent today although it still depicts a beta-gamma
magnetic complex. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Saulės aktyvumo prognozė
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 386, 387, and 388 all have the
potential for producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geofizinės veiklos suvestinė nuo 20-2100Z iki 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.
Sustained periods of southward Bz along with elevated solar wind
speeds led to the occasional storming conditions. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geofizinio aktyvumo prognozė
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels. Isolated minor storm
conditions are possible throughout the period due to a recurrent
high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Įvykio tikimybė nuo 22 Jun iki 24 Jun
M klasė | 30% | 30% | 30% |
X klasė | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Protonas | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | yellow
|
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
Stebėtas 21 Jun 115
Prognozuotas 22 Jun-24 Jun 115/115/115
90 dienų vidurkis 21 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetiniai A indeksai
Stebėtas Afr/Ap 20 Jun 010/012
Numatytas Afr/Ap 21 Jun 018/025
Prognozuotas Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 012/015-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetinio aktyvumo tikimybė nuo 22 Jun iki 24 Jun
A. Vidutinės platumos |
Aktyvi | 25% | 35% | 25% |
Nedidelė audra | 10% | 20% | 10% |
Stipri-labai stipri audra | 01% | 05% | 01% |
B. Aukštosios platumos |
Aktyvi | 35% | 35% | 30% |
Nedidelė audra | 20% | 20% | 15% |
Stipri-labai stipri audra | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PLAIN
K-Indices:
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.
GOES Protons:
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
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