Peržiūrimas penktadienis, birželio 20. 2003
Saulės aktyvumo pranešimas
Šioje ataskaitoje paminėtiems Saulės žybsniams taikomas Kosminių orų prognozių centro (SWPC) nustatytas mastelio koeficientas. Dėl SWPC mastelio koeficiento Saulės žybsniai pateikiami 42 % mažesni nei mokslinės kokybės duomenyse. Mūsų archyvuotuose Saulės žybsnių duomenyse mastelio koeficientas buvo pašalintas, kad atspindėtų tikruosius fizikinius vienetus.
Saulės geofizinio aktyvumo ataskaita 2003 Jun 20 2200 UTC
Parengė NOAA © SWPC ir apdorojo SpaceWeatherLive.comBendra USAF/NOAA Saulės ir geofizinio aktyvumo ataskaita
SDF numeris 171 Išleistas 2200Z ir 20 Jun 2003
IA. Aktyvių Saulės regionų ir Saulės aktyvumo nuo 19-2100Z iki 20-2100Z analizė
Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region
386 (S07E17) produced two low levels C-class flares today along with
several B-class flares. The northern portion of the penumbral field
appears to have undergone some rotation since yesterday while the
delta magnetic structure in the southern leading edge of group has
changed little during the period and remains intact. Region 387
(N18E36) was quiescent today although spot coverage and magnetic
complexity have both shown growth over the period. Region 389
(S12E14) was newly numbered today.
IB. Saulės aktyvumo prognozė
Solar activity is expected to range
from low to moderate levels. Region 386 remains capable of
producing an isolated major event.
IIA. Geofizinės veiklos suvestinė nuo 19-2100Z iki 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled levels today as
effects from the western most recurrent coronal hole wanes. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geofizinio aktyvumo prognozė
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Active conditions
may exist especially at high latitudes beginning late on day two
with the return of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Įvykio tikimybė nuo 21 Jun iki 23 Jun
M klasė | 40% | 40% | 40% |
X klasė | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Protonas | 10% | 10% | 10% |
PCAF | yellow
|
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
Stebėtas 20 Jun 117
Prognozuotas 21 Jun-23 Jun 115/115/120
90 dienų vidurkis 20 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetiniai A indeksai
Stebėtas Afr/Ap 19 Jun 016/018
Numatytas Afr/Ap 20 Jun 010/015
Prognozuotas Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 010/015-012/015-012/020
VI. Geomagnetinio aktyvumo tikimybė nuo 21 Jun iki 23 Jun
A. Vidutinės platumos |
Aktyvi | 15% | 25% | 25% |
Nedidelė audra | 05% | 05% | 10% |
Stipri-labai stipri audra | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. Aukštosios platumos |
Aktyvi | 30% | 30% | 40% |
Nedidelė audra | 15% | 15% | 20% |
Stipri-labai stipri audra | 05% | 05% | 05% |
99999
PLAIN
K-Indices:
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.
GOES Protons:
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
99999
Visi laikai UTC
<< Eikite į dienos apžvalgos puslapį