Peržiūrimas sekmadienis, birželio 22. 2003
Saulės aktyvumo pranešimas
Šioje ataskaitoje paminėtiems Saulės žybsniams taikomas Kosminių orų prognozių centro (SWPC) nustatytas mastelio koeficientas. Dėl SWPC mastelio koeficiento Saulės žybsniai pateikiami 42 % mažesni nei mokslinės kokybės duomenyse. Mūsų archyvuotuose Saulės žybsnių duomenyse mastelio koeficientas buvo pašalintas, kad atspindėtų tikruosius fizikinius vienetus.
Saulės geofizinio aktyvumo ataskaita 2003 Jun 22 2200 UTC
Parengė NOAA © SWPC ir apdorojo SpaceWeatherLive.comBendra USAF/NOAA Saulės ir geofizinio aktyvumo ataskaita
SDF numeris 173 Išleistas 2200Z ir 22 Jun 2003
IA. Aktyvių Saulės regionų ir Saulės aktyvumo nuo 21-2100Z iki 22-2100Z analizė
Solar activity was low. Just a single C-class flare
this period - a C1/Sf at 22/0949Z from Region 388 (S02W32). This
region has shown little change this period and still contains some
weak magnetic mixing. Moderately complex Region 386 (S06W08) still
maintains a weak delta configuration, but was quiet this period as
it continues to slowly decay. Region 387 (N18E10) is the largest
region the visible disk, but was also quiet. A new region rotating
around the east limb was numbered today as Region 390.
IB. Saulės aktyvumo prognozė
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. There is a small chance for an isolated low M-class
flare from Regions 386, 387 and 388.
IIA. Geofizinės veiklos suvestinė nuo 21-2100Z iki 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active due to a high speed
coronal hole stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geofizinio aktyvumo prognozė
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to active levels due to coronal
hole high speed flow.
III. Įvykio tikimybė nuo 23 Jun iki 25 Jun
M klasė | 25% | 25% | 25% |
X klasė | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Protonas | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
Stebėtas 22 Jun 110
Prognozuotas 23 Jun-25 Jun 110/115/115
90 dienų vidurkis 22 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetiniai A indeksai
Stebėtas Afr/Ap 21 Jun 016/023
Numatytas Afr/Ap 22 Jun 015/015
Prognozuotas Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 015/015-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetinio aktyvumo tikimybė nuo 23 Jun iki 25 Jun
A. Vidutinės platumos |
Aktyvi | 35% | 30% | 30% |
Nedidelė audra | 15% | 10% | 10% |
Stipri-labai stipri audra | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. Aukštosios platumos |
Aktyvi | 40% | 35% | 35% |
Nedidelė audra | 20% | 15% | 15% |
Stipri-labai stipri audra | 10% | 05% | 05% |
Comments
K-Indices
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated, the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.
GOES Protons
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
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