Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 Apr 28 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3654 (S07W29, Ehc/beta-gamma-delta) produced two R1 (Minor) events this period, the largest of which was an M3.0 flare at 27/2140 UTC. Region 3654 exhibited moderate development in the intermediate and trailer spots, and developed a delta magnetic configuration. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.

Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels over 28-30 Apr with a chance for M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 28-30 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 28-30 Apr.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

The solar wind environment was enhanced early in the period due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total field strength reached a peak of 13 nT and the Bz component was varied between +11/-10 nT. Solar wind speeds were steady near 400 km/s. The phi angle was in a mostly positive orientation through the period.

Forecast

Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 28-30 Apr due to CH HSS influences and possible transient activity associated with multiple CMEs that are expected to pass in close proximity to Earth over the next few days.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels this period.

Forecast

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels on 28 Apr, and quiet to unsettled levels on 29-30 Apr, due to the anticipated influence of CH HSSs combined with potential transient influence of multiple near-miss CMEs from the past several days. A chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods exists on 28 Apr should these features arrive at Earth and carry periods of significant southward Bz.