3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2024 Apr 27 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA scale G1).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 27-Apr 29 2024 is 3 (.67below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Apr 27       Apr 28       Apr 29
00-03UT       3.00         3.67         2.67     
03-06UT       3.00         3.33         2.00     
06-09UT       2.00         3.33         2.33     
09-12UT       1.33         3.67         2.67     
12-15UT       3.67         3.00         2.33     
15-18UT       3.00         2.67         2.33     
18-21UT       3.67         2.00         2.33     
21-00UT       3.67         2.00         2.67     

Rationale

No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 27-Apr 29 2024

              Apr 27  Apr 28  Apr 29
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 27-Apr 29 2024

              Apr 27        Apr 28        Apr 29
R1-R2           40%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale

There is a chance for isolated R1-R1 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 27-29 Apr.