Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 January 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jan 16 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled under the continued
influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind
at ACE peaked at approximately 700 km/s during the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled on day one of the forecast period (17 Jan)
as the influence of the high speed stream wanes. Isolated active
periods, particularly at high latitudes, are still possible.
STEREO-B data suggest a downward trend in solar wind speed and
magnetic activity over the next 40 hours, so by days two and three
(18-19 Jan) conditions should return to quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 073 Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 010/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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