Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 January 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jan 15 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled under the influence of a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE
declined from a peak of approximately 760 km/s to 650 km/s during
the period. The greater than 2 MeV electrons reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain unsettled on days 1 and 2 (16-17 Jan) under the
waning influence of the coronal hole. Infrequent, brief periods of
active to minor storm conditions will still be possible at high
latitudes. Day 3 (18 Jan) should bring a return to quiet
conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 074 Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 075/070/070 90 Day Mean 15 Jan 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 014/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 014/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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