SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8598 (N23E02) PRODUCED AN M2/2N AT 0512Z. THE GROUP CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT REGION ON THE DISK AND PRODUCED ADDITIONAL C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8602 (N17E35) IS ALSO IMPRESSIVE LOOKING WITH BRIGHT, FLUCTUATING PLAGE BUT COULD ONLY PRODUCE A SUBFLARE. REGION 8596 (N22W12) WAS ALSO ACTIVE A CONTRIBUTED A C4/1N FLARE AT 1650Z.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGIONS 8598 AND 8602 ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN ACTIVITY CENTERS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAJOR FLARE OR PROTON PRODUCING ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8598.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. A SHOCK WAS SEEN AT THE ACE SPACECRAFT AT 0215Z AND WAS FOLLOWED BY A FEW HOURS OF MODERATELY NEGATIVE SOUTHWARD INTERPLANETARY FIELD. A 16 NT SUDDEN IMPULSE OCCURRED AT 0326Z AND WAS FOLLOWED BY A 12 HOUR PERIOD OF UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS. A SECOND SHOCK WAS SEEN AT ACE AT 1925Z, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SUDDEN IMPULSE AT 2020Z WHICH MEASURED 38 NT IN BOULDER. AS OF FORECAST FILE TIME THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD WAS ORIENTED NORTHWARDS.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HOWEVER, THE NATURE OF THE PLASMA AND FIELDS BEHIND THE 20/1925Z SHOCK AT ACE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN AND COULD BE GEOEFFECTIVE. THEREFORE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF DISTURBED CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AN INCREASE IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE THIRD DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OF 24/1200Z.

  觀測的       26 JUN 200
  預測的   27 JUN-29 JUN  205/205/205
  90天平均值        26 JUN 141

OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JUN  002/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JUN  014/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JUN-29 JUN  010/012-010/012-015/010