Viewing archive of fredag, 12 mars 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Mar 12 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 072 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 Mar 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 570 (S14W05) produced an
impulsive C3/Sf at 12/0237Z with minor centimetric radio bursts. The
large leading sunspot cluster in this region began to fragment this
period and the trailing spots have decayed considerably; however, a
weak delta configuration is still evident. A new bipolar sunspot
group formed north and center on the disk and was numbered as Region
572 (N19W05). New Region 573 (S14E71) was also numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Occasional C-class activity is expected from Region
570 with a slight chance of an M-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A high
speed stream associated with a large transequatorial coronal hole
is responsible for the current disturbance. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active with isolated minor storm
periods possible. The coronal hole high speed stream is expected to
continue through 13 March. Mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated
active periods are expected on 14 and 15 March as the high speed
stream subsides.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 Mar till 15 Mar
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 12 Mar 108 Prognoserat 13 Mar-15 Mar 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 112
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 11 Mar 017/026 Förväntat Afr/Ap 12 Mar 022/025 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 015/020-010/012-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 Mar till 15 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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