Bespreking van het voorspelde ruimteweer

Datum verslag: 2024 May 04 0030 UTC
Dit rapport werd door opgemaakt door het Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

Zonneactiviteit

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Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3663 (N26W03, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X1.6/1b flare (R3/Strong) at 03/0222 UTC, with accompanying Type II (est. 959 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions. The associated CME, first visible in LASCO imagery off the NNE at 03/0248 UTC, is expected to arrive late on 05 May or early 06 May. Region 3663 grew slightly in size and spot count this period, and maintained a strong delta magnetic configuration within the largest intermediate spot. In addition to the X-flare, Region 3663 produced an impulsive M4.4/Sb flare at 03/0811 UTC, though no CME was associated with this activity. Region 3664 (S18E41, Eai/beta-gamma) exhibited minor growth throughout the period and produced an impulsive M2.7/1n flare at 03/0015 UTC, along with several C-class flares. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. Other activity included two filament eruptions in the vicinity of Region 3661 (N23E15, Cso/beta) beginning at around 03/0500 UTC. The associated CMEs were analyzed as misses.

Voorspelling

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong or greater), over 04-06 May.

Energetische deeltjes

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The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Voorspelling

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 04-06 May. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 04-06 May due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664.

Zonnewind

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The solar wind environment was enhanced early this period following the passage of a CME on 02 May. Total field strength values ranged 2-12 nT and Bz varied +8/-7 nT, with a marked decrease observed in the IMF after 03/0145 UTC. Solar wind speeds decreased from a peak of around 530 km/s observed early in the day, to around 400 km/s by the end of the period.

Voorspelling

Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions and positive polarity CH HSS influences are expected to prevail over 04-06 May. A stronger disturbance is expected late on 05 May and 06 May due to the anticipated arrival of the 03 May CME associated with the X1.6 flare detailed above.

Geospace

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The geomagnetic field decreased from unsettled and active conditions early in the period following CME activity, to mostly quiet conditions after 03/0900 UTC.

Voorspelling

The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled and active levels on 04 May due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions and periods of G1 (Minor) storming are expected on 05 May due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influences in addition to the anticipated arrival of the 03 May CME late in the day. Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming are expected on 06 May due to continued CME activity and CH HSS influences.