Peržiūrimas antradienis, birželio 17. 2003
Saulės aktyvumo pranešimas
Šioje ataskaitoje paminėtiems Saulės žybsniams taikomas Kosminių orų prognozių centro (SWPC) nustatytas mastelio koeficientas. Dėl SWPC mastelio koeficiento Saulės žybsniai pateikiami 42 % mažesni nei mokslinės kokybės duomenyse. Mūsų archyvuotuose Saulės žybsnių duomenyse mastelio koeficientas buvo pašalintas, kad atspindėtų tikruosius fizikinius vienetus.
Saulės geofizinio aktyvumo ataskaita 2003 Jun 17 2200 UTC
Parengė NOAA © SWPC ir apdorojo SpaceWeatherLive.comBendra USAF/NOAA Saulės ir geofizinio aktyvumo ataskaita
SDF numeris 168 Išleistas 2200Z ir 17 Jun 2003
IA. Aktyvių Saulės regionų ir Saulės aktyvumo nuo 16-2100Z iki 17-2100Z analizė
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare
was a C2 flare at 0222 UTC from Region 386 (S07E58). This region
continues to increase in area coverage as it rotates further onto
the visible disk. Magnetic analysis indicates a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. Region 380 (S15W64) continues a its gradual
decay in area and now has a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Saulės aktyvumo prognozė
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a chance of isolated high level
activity. Region 386 has the potential for major flare activity.
IIA. Geofizinės veiklos suvestinė nuo 16-2100Z iki 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. A
six-hour period of southward Bz, from 06 - 09 UTC combined with
elevated solar wind speed near 510 km/s produced minor and major
storm levels.
IIB. Geofizinio aktyvumo prognozė
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. A weak CME shock
is possible late on day one with isolated minor storm levels
possible. High speed stream effects are expected on day two and day
three with minor storm levels possible.
III. Įvykio tikimybė nuo 18 Jun iki 20 Jun
M klasė | 40% | 40% | 40% |
X klasė | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Protonas | 30% | 20% | 20% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
Stebėtas 17 Jun 122
Prognozuotas 18 Jun-20 Jun 125/120/120
90 dienų vidurkis 17 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetiniai A indeksai
Stebėtas Afr/Ap 16 Jun 020/032
Numatytas Afr/Ap 17 Jun 040/050
Prognozuotas Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 020/030-020/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetinio aktyvumo tikimybė nuo 18 Jun iki 20 Jun
A. Vidutinės platumos |
Aktyvi | 35% | 40% | 40% |
Nedidelė audra | 15% | 20% | 20% |
Stipri-labai stipri audra | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. Aukštosios platumos |
Aktyvi | 40% | 50% | 50% |
Nedidelė audra | 20% | 25% | 25% |
Stipri-labai stipri audra | 10% | 15% | 15% |
VII Comment:
K-Indices:
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the H-trace on the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.
GOES Protons:
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. Beginning 1700 UTC on June 18, GOES 11 (105W) will become the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
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