Affichage des archives de dimanche, 27 mars 2011

Rapport d'activité solaire

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 Mar 27 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique

SDF numéro 086 publié à 2200Z le 27 Mar 2011

IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 26-2100Z au 27-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1176 (S15E02) produced a C3/Sf at 27/0014Z with discrete radio emissions. Associated with this event was a CME, first observed in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery at 27/0200Z and 27/0242Z respectively. The CME appeared as a narrow band extending east, as viewed in LASCO, and had an estimated plane-of-sky velocity of 630 km/s. SDO/AIA 193 imagery indicated material movement in a wide band extending north through east with stronger movement in an easterly direction. Region 1176 showed little change during the period. At 27/0511Z, Type II (estimated shock velocity of 651 km/s) and Type IV radio signatures were observed. GOES13 and 15 were in eclipse phase, so GOES XRS data was not available. At 27/0512Z, limited GOES-15 SXI data indicated surging and material movement off the NE limb in the vicinity of new Region 1183 (N15E62). LASCO C2 (27/0536Z) and C3 (27/0606Z) imagery detected an asymmetric, partial-halo CME lifting off the NE limb with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity of 880 km/s. New Region 1183 rotated on as a large, 8-spot E-type group with beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. New Region 1182 (N13E01) evolved on the disk as a single spot unipolar group. The remaining groups were quiet and stable during the period. At this time, neither CMEs observed on 27 March appeared to have an Earth-directed component. The Penticton 10.7 cm flux and 90 day mean are estimated due to non-receipt of 27 Marchs flux reading.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be moderate for the next three days (28-30 March). A chance for M-class activity exists on day one (28 March) becoming likely on days two and three (29 - 30 March) with a slight chance for X-class activity on 29 - 30 March. This expected increase in activity is due to the complex nature of Regions 1176 and 1183 plus the return of old Regions 1166 (N10, L=110) on 28 March and 1169 (N17, L=078) on 30 March. On their last transit across the disk, these regions produced a total of six M-class events and one X-class event.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 26-2100Z au 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. ACE solar wind velocities were low, varying between 300 to 370 Km/s, while the Bz component of the IMF was generally north through a majority of the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, on day one (28 March) due to possible effects from the 24 March CME. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for day two (29 March). By day three (30 March), quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected due to the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 28 Mar au 30 Mar
Classe M50%60%70%
Classe X05%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
  Observé       27 Mar 117
  Prévisionnel   28 Mar-30 Mar  125/125/130
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        27 Mar 097
V. Indice géomagnetique A
  Observé Afr/Ap 26 Mar  001/001
  Estimé     Afr/Ap 27 Mar  001/001
  Prévisionnel    Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  010/010-005/005-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 28 Mar au 30 Mar
A. Latitudes moyennes
Actif20%10%20%
Tempête mineure05%01%05%
Tempête majeure/sévère01%01%01%
B. Hautes latitudes
Actif25%15%25%
Tempête mineure10%01%10%
Tempête majeure/sévère01%01%01%

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

<< Aller à l'aperçu quotidien

Dernières nouvelles

Aidez SpaceWeatherLive.com !

Vous êtes de plus en plus nombreux à consulter SpaceWeatherLive pour suivre l'activité solaire ou aurorale, et avec le traffic les coûts du serveur augmentent. Si vous appréciez SpaceWeatherLive, soutenez notre projet en faisant un don afin que nous puissions continuer à vous informer !

62%
Soutenir SpaceWeatherLive avec nos produits dérivés
Découvrez nos produits dérivés

La Météo Spatiale en faits

Dernière classe X15/05/2024X2.9
Dernière classe M17/05/2024M7.1
Dernier orage géomagnétique17/05/2024Kp6 (G2)
Jours sans taches solaires
Dernier jour sans taches solaires08/06/2022
Nombre mensuel moyen de taches solaires
avril 2024136.5 +31.6
mai 2024157.2 +20.7
Last 30 days174.3 +64.2

A ce jour dans l'histoire*

Éruptions solaires
12023M4.5
22000M3.96
32023M3.8
42023M2.2
52023M1.9
ApG
1198157G3
2199031G2
3197139G2
4195236G2
5193429G2
*depuis 1994

Les réseaux sociaux