Affichage des archives de lundi, 16 juin 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Jun 16 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.comRapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 167 publié à 2200Z le 16 Jun 2003
IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z
Solar activity was very high. New Region 386 (S07E71)
produced an X1/Sf flare at 15/2356 UTC with an associated Type II
(841 km/s) and Type IV radio sweep. SOHO/LACSO imagery indicates a
full halo CME, however the majority of the ejecta was off to the
east. Region 386 currently indicates a beta magnetic configuration
but its proximity to the east limb prevents a detailed analysis of
the magnetic complexity. Region 380 (S16W51) has slowed its rate of
decay and has developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New
Region 386 was numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 386 is expected to produce M-class
and possibly X-class activity.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. The
source of the minor storm conditions may be associated with the
Boulder magnetometer scaling problem (see comment in VII). Solar
wind speed was in gradual decay from a peak near 600 km/s early in
the day to a minimum of 450 km/s by 1600UTC. Wind speed then
increased to 550 km/s by the end of the day.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with a chance of isolated minor storm
levels. Late on day one or early on day two, weak CME shock effects
are possible from the X1 event mentioned in IA. A coronal hole high
speed flow is expected late on day two and day three with isolated
minor storm levels possible.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 17 Jun au 19 Jun
Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Classe X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Proton | 30% | 20% | 20% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 16 Jun 123
Prévisionnel 17 Jun-19 Jun 125/125/120
Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 16 Jun 124
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 15 Jun 013/020
Estimé Afr/Ap 16 Jun 014/023
Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 012/015-020/030-020/030
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 17 Jun au 19 Jun
A. Latitudes moyennes |
Actif | 25% | 30% | 35% |
Tempête mineure | 10% | 15% | 15% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. Hautes latitudes |
Actif | 30% | 40% | 40% |
Tempête mineure | 15% | 20% | 25% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 15% |
VII. Comments:
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the H-trace on the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.
Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC
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