Affichage des archives de dimanche, 4 novembre 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Nov 04 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.comRapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 308 publié à 2200Z le 04 Nov 2001
IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z
Solar activity has been high. Region 9684 (N06W27)
produced an X1/3b flare beginning at 1603 UTC, maximum at 1620 UTC,
and ending at 1647 UTC. The event was accompanied by strong radio
bursts, a type II sweep, and a type IV sweep. A CME was observed to
enter the C2 field of view during the flare, with the leading edge
just visible at 1635 UTC. The front edge moved quickly across C2 and
exited somewhere between 1655 UTC and 1705 UTC. Region 9684 has
grown and the leader and trailer spots merged during the past 24
hours, making the region a beta-gamma-delta group. Region 9687
(S20E35) continues to be a complex, beta-gamma group and produced a
few C-class subflares. Region 9682 (N13W64) is still the largest
group on the disk but could only muster a couple of subflares. A 10
degree filament just west of Region 9684 disappeared sometime
between 03/2208 UTC and 04/0629 UTC.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. M-class events are likely to occur during the next
three days. There is a fair chance for an additional major flare
from Region 9684, especially if new magnetic flux continues to
emerge. Regions 9682 and 9687 also continue to pose a slight threat
for major flare activity.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. A greater than 100 MeV proton event began at 1650 UTC,
shortly after today's X-class flare. Flux levels rose quickly
initially, but began to level off around 1800 UTC, although they are
still climbing slowly. The maximum 100 MeV flux observed so far is
56 pfu at 2035 UTC. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 1705
UTC. This event also seems to be leveling off, and the maximum flux
observed so far is 1180 pfu at 2040 UTC.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to slightly active tomorrow. Major storm
conditions are likely to follow the arrival of a shock from today's
solar event, sometime early on the 2nd day (06 November). The
disturbance is expected to last for about 24 hours, and a decrease
to mostly active conditions should occur on the third day. Today's
greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to continue for the
next 12 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton event should continue
tomorrow, and is likely to get an enhancement of flux levels on the
second day with the arrival of the interplanetary shock from today's
solar event.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 05 Nov au 07 Nov
Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
Classe X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Proton | 99% | 80% | 25% |
PCAF | in progress
|
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 04 Nov 227
Prévisionnel 05 Nov-07 Nov 220/215/210
Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 04 Nov 206
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 03 Nov 001/003
Estimé Afr/Ap 04 Nov 007/008
Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 015/015-050/050-025/025
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 05 Nov au 07 Nov
A. Latitudes moyennes |
Actif | 25% | 10% | 20% |
Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 35% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 75% | 35% |
B. Hautes latitudes |
Actif | 25% | 05% | 15% |
Tempête mineure | 15% | 10% | 30% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 80% | 35% |
Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC
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