Tarkastellaan perjantaina, 20. kesäkuuta 2003 arkistoa
Auringon aktiivisuusraportti
Kaikkiin tässä raportissa mainittuihin auringonpurkauksiin on sovellettu Space Weather Prediction Center:n (SWPC) skaalauskerrointa. SWPC:n skaalauskertoimen vuoksi flarepurkaukset ilmoitetaan 42 prosenttia pienempinä kuin tieteellisissä laatutiedoissa. Skaalauskerroin on poistettu arkistoidusta auringonpurkaustiedostamme, jotta se vastaisi todellisia fyysisiä yksiköitä.
Raportti geofysikaalisesta aktiivisuudesta 2003 Jun 20 2200 UTC
Valmisteli NOAA © SWPC ja käsitteli SpaceWeatherLive.comUSAF:n ja NOAA:n yhteinen raportti Auringon ja geofysikaalisesta aktiivisuudesta
SDF-luku 171 julkaistu 2200Z kello 20 Jun 2003
IA. Auringon aktiivisten alueiden ja aktiivisuuden analyysi välillä 19-2100Z – 20-2100Z
Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region
386 (S07E17) produced two low levels C-class flares today along with
several B-class flares. The northern portion of the penumbral field
appears to have undergone some rotation since yesterday while the
delta magnetic structure in the southern leading edge of group has
changed little during the period and remains intact. Region 387
(N18E36) was quiescent today although spot coverage and magnetic
complexity have both shown growth over the period. Region 389
(S12E14) was newly numbered today.
IB. Auringon aktiivisuusennuste
Solar activity is expected to range
from low to moderate levels. Region 386 remains capable of
producing an isolated major event.
IIA. Geofysikaalisen aktiivisuuden yhteenveto 19-2100Z – 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled levels today as
effects from the western most recurrent coronal hole wanes. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geofysikaalisen aktiivisuuden ennuste
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Active conditions
may exist especially at high latitudes beginning late on day two
with the return of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Tapahtuman todennäköisyydet 21 Jun – 23 Jun
Luokka M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
Luokka X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Protonit | 10% | 10% | 10% |
PCAF | yellow
|
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm vuo
Havaittu 20 Jun 117
Ennusteet 21 Jun-23 Jun 115/115/120
90 vuorokauden keskiarvo 20 Jun 125
V. Geomagneettinen A-indeksit
Havaittu Afr/Ap 19 Jun 016/018
Arvioitu Afr/Ap 20 Jun 010/015
Ennusteet Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 010/015-012/015-012/020
VI. Geomagneettisen toiminnan todennäköisyydet 21 Jun – 23 Jun
A. Keskileveysasteet |
Aktiivinen | 15% | 25% | 25% |
Heikko myrsky | 05% | 05% | 10% |
Voimakas myrsky | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. Korkeat leveysasteet |
Aktiivinen | 30% | 30% | 40% |
Heikko myrsky | 15% | 15% | 20% |
Voimakas myrsky | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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PLAIN
K-Indices:
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.
GOES Protons:
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
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