Tarkastellaan tiistaina, 17. kesäkuuta 2003 arkistoa
Auringon aktiivisuusraportti
Kaikkiin tässä raportissa mainittuihin auringonpurkauksiin on sovellettu Space Weather Prediction Center:n (SWPC) skaalauskerrointa. SWPC:n skaalauskertoimen vuoksi flarepurkaukset ilmoitetaan 42 prosenttia pienempinä kuin tieteellisissä laatutiedoissa. Skaalauskerroin on poistettu arkistoidusta auringonpurkaustiedostamme, jotta se vastaisi todellisia fyysisiä yksiköitä.
Raportti geofysikaalisesta aktiivisuudesta 2003 Jun 17 2200 UTC
Valmisteli NOAA © SWPC ja käsitteli SpaceWeatherLive.comUSAF:n ja NOAA:n yhteinen raportti Auringon ja geofysikaalisesta aktiivisuudesta
SDF-luku 168 julkaistu 2200Z kello 17 Jun 2003
IA. Auringon aktiivisten alueiden ja aktiivisuuden analyysi välillä 16-2100Z – 17-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare
was a C2 flare at 0222 UTC from Region 386 (S07E58). This region
continues to increase in area coverage as it rotates further onto
the visible disk. Magnetic analysis indicates a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. Region 380 (S15W64) continues a its gradual
decay in area and now has a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Auringon aktiivisuusennuste
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a chance of isolated high level
activity. Region 386 has the potential for major flare activity.
IIA. Geofysikaalisen aktiivisuuden yhteenveto 16-2100Z – 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. A
six-hour period of southward Bz, from 06 - 09 UTC combined with
elevated solar wind speed near 510 km/s produced minor and major
storm levels.
IIB. Geofysikaalisen aktiivisuuden ennuste
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. A weak CME shock
is possible late on day one with isolated minor storm levels
possible. High speed stream effects are expected on day two and day
three with minor storm levels possible.
III. Tapahtuman todennäköisyydet 18 Jun – 20 Jun
Luokka M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
Luokka X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Protonit | 30% | 20% | 20% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm vuo
Havaittu 17 Jun 122
Ennusteet 18 Jun-20 Jun 125/120/120
90 vuorokauden keskiarvo 17 Jun 125
V. Geomagneettinen A-indeksit
Havaittu Afr/Ap 16 Jun 020/032
Arvioitu Afr/Ap 17 Jun 040/050
Ennusteet Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 020/030-020/030-020/025
VI. Geomagneettisen toiminnan todennäköisyydet 18 Jun – 20 Jun
A. Keskileveysasteet |
Aktiivinen | 35% | 40% | 40% |
Heikko myrsky | 15% | 20% | 20% |
Voimakas myrsky | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. Korkeat leveysasteet |
Aktiivinen | 40% | 50% | 50% |
Heikko myrsky | 20% | 25% | 25% |
Voimakas myrsky | 10% | 15% | 15% |
VII Comment:
K-Indices:
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the H-trace on the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.
GOES Protons:
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. Beginning 1700 UTC on June 18, GOES 11 (105W) will become the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
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