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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Jun 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 160 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Jun 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
08/0149Z from Region 3697 (S17W72). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (09 Jun, 10 Jun)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (11 Jun).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 545 km/s at 08/1946Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 08/0535Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
08/0038Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1028 pfu at 08/0800Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8 pfu at 08/0625Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 178 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Jun), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (10 Jun) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (11 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (09
Jun), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (10 Jun) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (11 Jun).
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Jun a 11 Jun
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 50% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Protón | 99% | 50% | 10% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Jun 190 Previsto 09 Jun-11 Jun 190/175/175 Media de 90 Días 08 Jun 173
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Jun 020/022 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Jun 015/022 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 009/010-020/035-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Jun a 11 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 20% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 80% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 2024/06/10 | X1.55 |
| Último evento clase M | 2024/07/03 | M1.5 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 2024/06/28 | Kp8- (G4) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 2022/06/08 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| mayo 2024 | 171.7 +35.2 |
| julio 2024 | 192 +20.3 |
| Last 30 days | 155.5 +1.5 |