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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Apr 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 114 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Apr 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
23/0319Z from Region 3654 (S08E31). There are currently 15 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 23/0717Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 23/1738Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
23/1803Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 809 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Apr), unsettled to
active levels on day two (25 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day
three (26 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Apr a 26 Apr
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Apr 214 Previsto 24 Apr-26 Apr 215/210/190 Media de 90 Días 23 Apr 162
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Apr Missing/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Apr 011/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 010/010-016/020-015/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Apr a 26 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 60% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 2024/05/15 | X2.9 |
| Último evento clase M | 2024/05/17 | M7.1 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 2024/05/16 | Kp6 (G2) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 2022/06/08 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| abril 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| mayo 2024 | 156.6 +20.1 |
| Last 30 days | 174.5 +64.4 |