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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Mar 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 84 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Mar 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
24/0218Z from Region 3615 (S13W14). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Mar, 26
Mar, 27 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 887 km/s at 24/2035Z. Total
IMF reached 33 nT at 24/1607Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -26 nT at 24/1510Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 724 pfu at 24/1235Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 115 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (25 Mar), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (26 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (27
Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (25 Mar), are
likely to cross threshold on day two (26 Mar) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on day three (27 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Mar a 27 Mar
| Clase M | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 99% | 70% | 50% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 Mar 195 Previsto 25 Mar-27 Mar 200/205/210 Media de 90 Días 24 Mar 163
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 Mar 025/033 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 Mar 034/070 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 031/050-020/022-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Mar a 27 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 35% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 25% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 90% | 65% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 2024/05/15 | X2.9 |
| Último evento clase M | 2024/05/17 | M7.1 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 2024/05/17 | Kp6 (G2) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 2022/06/08 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| abril 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| mayo 2024 | 157.2 +20.7 |
| Last 30 days | 174.3 +64.2 |