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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 14/0232Z from Region 3637 (S12E53). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr, 17 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 582 km/s at 13/2317Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 14/0041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/1845Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 484 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (17 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
Class M45%45%45%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Apr 178
  Predicted   15 Apr-17 Apr 180/180/180
  90 Day Mean        14 Apr 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr  006/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Apr  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr  013/018-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%10%
Minor storm30%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm65%25%15%

All times in UTC

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