Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 April 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
11/1706Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr,
14 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 11/1415Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 10/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
10/2355Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 260 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (13 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (14 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 144 Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 148/150/155 90 Day Mean 11 Apr 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 006/005-007/008-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 25% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/05/15 | X2.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/05/16 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/16 | Kp6 (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| May 2024 | 156.6 +20.1 |
| Last 30 days | 177 +70.8 |