Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 April 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Apr,
06 Apr, 07 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 552 km/s at 04/1849Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 04/0736Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
04/1055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 161 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Apr), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (06 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (07
Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Apr 114 Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 04 Apr 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 010/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 013/016-010/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/05/15 | X2.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/05/16 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/13 | Kp6 (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| May 2024 | 153.1 +16.6 |
| Last 30 days | 175.9 +69.7 |