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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
03/0554Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 346 km/s at 03/1626Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 274 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Feb), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (05 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (06 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 156 Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 160/165/165 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 012/014-017/020-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 60% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/05/15 | X2.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/05/19 | M1.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/17 | Kp6 (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| May 2024 | 157.5 +21 |
| Last 30 days | 168.7 +50.9 |