Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 December 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
10/0353Z from Region 3511 (S23W71). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (11 Dec,
12 Dec) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (13 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 464 km/s at 10/0708Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 839 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (11 Dec,
12 Dec, 13 Dec). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (11 Dec, 12 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Dec 127 Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 125/120/118 90 Day Mean 10 Dec 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 011/012-011/012-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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