Viewing archive of Monday, 24 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
24/0426Z from Region 3372 (N24W91). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul,
27 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 492 km/s at 23/2158Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
24/1806Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
24/1913Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7 pfu at 24/1955Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 345 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Jul), quiet to active
levels on day two (26 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(27 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing
threshold on day one (25 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
| Class M | 45% | 35% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 40% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jul 165 Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 168/165/160 90 Day Mean 24 Jul 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 010/010-008/012-018/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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