Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 May 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 May 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
07/0605Z from Region 3006 (S29E23). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09
May, 10 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 625 km/s at 07/0429Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
07/1112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
07/1112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1408 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (08 May, 10
May) and quiet levels on day two (09 May). Protons have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10
May).
III. Event Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 May 118 Predicted 08 May-10 May 118/116/110 90 Day Mean 07 May 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May NA/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 008/008-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 10% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2024/06/10 | X1.55 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/06/10 | M9.56 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/06/07 | Kp6 (G2) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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