Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 March 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
11/2232Z from Region 2964 (S28W68). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar,
15 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 12/1407Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 11/2115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 11/2134Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 161 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Mar), unsettled to major
storm levels on day two (14 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (15 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 125 Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 125/120/120 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 015/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 012/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 008/010-020/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 35% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 25% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 80% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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