Viewing archive of Friday, 2 July 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jul 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Jul,
04 Jul, 05 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 499 km/s at 02/2004Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
01/2147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
02/1413Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 160 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Jul,
04 Jul, 05 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jul 095 Predicted 03 Jul-05 Jul 094/094/094 90 Day Mean 02 Jul 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul 009/012-008/008-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/06/02 | M1.9 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/17 | Kp6 (G2) |
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