Viewing archive of Monday, 28 December 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Dec 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (29
Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 606 km/s at 28/0752Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
28/0219Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
28/0228Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 737 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Dec 087 Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 087/087/087 90 Day Mean 28 Dec 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 008/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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