Viewing archive of Friday, 19 January 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Jan 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 19/1741Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 19/0802Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
19/0458Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 216 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 071 Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 001/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 011/015-011/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 35% | 25% |
Latest news
Friday, 10 May 2024
Coronal mass ejection impact, Severe G4 geomagnetic storm possible!
Friday, 10 May 2024
CME impact imminent, Two more earth-directed CMEs
Thursday, 9 May 2024
Severe G4 geomagnetic storm watch
Latest forum messages
AR3664 714Geomagnetic storming, CMEs from AR 13664, 2024-05-09/10 556Tell me if this is a record level of traffic or not 4Is there any truth to this "Internet/Electrical Grid Apocalypse"? 115Space Weather Memes 351
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/05/10 | X3.8 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/05/10 | M5.8 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/06 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| May 2024 | 138 +1.5 |
| Last 30 days | 167.9 +77.8 |