Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 December 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Dec 16 2300 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels due to a single C1 x-ray
event at 16/2103Z from Region 1631 (N20W60). There are currently 4
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare for days one through three (17 - 19
December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 463 km/s at
16/1937Z. Total IMF reached 9.4 nT at 16/0235Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6.5 nT at 16/0827Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one through three (17 - 19
December) with a chance for active periods on 17 December.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 120 Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 125/125/120 90 Day Mean 16 Dec 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 012/016-011/012-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
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