Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 February 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1159 (N18E12) produced a
C2 x-ray flare at 12/1506Z. Newly numbered Region 1160 near N16E86
produced several B-class flares from around the east limb early in
the period, as well as B8 x-ray flare at 12/2036Z. Two limb CMEs
were observed on LASCO C2 in conjunction with flaring that
originated from the proximity of Region 1160. A Type II radio sweep
with an estimated speed of 1,977 km/s was reported by the Paleahua
Solar Observatory at 11/2146Z and is believed to be associated with
the first of the two aforementioned CMEs. Neither CME is forecast to
be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with C-class flares likely and a chance for a M-class flare during
the next 3 days (13-15 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days 1 and 2 (13 and 14 February)
and quiet to unsettled with a chance for active conditions on day 3
(15 February), due to a recurrent extension of the southern crown
coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 096 Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 096/098/098 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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