Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 January 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 720 (N14W56) produced
an X1/2n flare at 19/0822 UTC. This flare was similar to previous
major flares in this region with strong radio output and a CME
directed mostly to the northwest. Further decay in the region has
occurred, although it remains fairly large and magnetically complex.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 720 retains the potential for another major
event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic disturbance remained in progress at the active to
severe storm level. The greater than 100 MeV proton event has ended:
start 17/1215 UTC, 28 pfu peak at 17/1700 UTC, and end 18/2205 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress but is
decaying: start 16/0210 UTC and 5040 pfu peak at 17/1750 UTC. Proton
fluxes have decreased enough for the GOES electron sensors and ACE
SWEPAM instruments to again provide reliable data. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at active to severe storm levels. Storm
intensity is expected to taper off over the next 48 hours, as is the
10 MeV proton event, barring another significant solar event in
Region 720.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| Class M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 99% | 90% | 80% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 133 Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 130/120/110 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 035/072 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 050/080 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 040/050-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 60% | 50% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 70% | 60% | 50% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
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