Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Newly visible Region 582
(N16E72) rotated onto the disk, elevating activity levels. It
produced an M1/Sf at 24/2329UTC, and an M2/Sf at 0439UTC. The region
emerged on the invisible disk and arrives with hot plage and a
bright x-ray corona. Elsewhere, the six other visible regions were
mostly quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, due to additional M-level activity from Region 582.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. ACE data show a slight
increase in solar wind radial speed and magnetic field strength
through the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geostationary orbit was high for a short time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled early, then slightly more
disturbed through the interval. A high speed stream may begin to
affect the field late on 28 March.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 127 Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 130/135/130 90 Day Mean 25 Mar 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 001/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 005/010-010/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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