Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 January 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9767 (S22W17)
produced the largest flare, a C6/Sf at 06/1444 UTC as well a 3 other
minor C-class flares. Region 9767 maintains a beta-gamma magnetic
classification but has shown slight decay in area and spot count.
Region 9768 (S05W84) has grown to a beta-gamma magnetic class as it
rotates to the west limb. Region 9773 (N13E36) has shown little
change since yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9767 and Region 9773 have the potential for an
M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 197 Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 205/200/195 90 Day Mean 06 Jan 221
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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