Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 December 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Dec 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 DEC 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A LOW LEVEL. ONLY SMALL
C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED. REGION 8797 (S34W01) EXHIBITED SLIGHT
GROWTH BUT MOST REGIONS WERE PREDOMINANTLY STABLE ON IN A STATE OF
DECLINE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A LOW
LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE DISTURBANCE OBSERVED ON 13 DEC
ENDED QUICKLY AFTER 13/1800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 15 DEC to 17 DEC
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 DEC 168 Predicted 15 DEC-17 DEC 165/160/155 90 Day Mean 14 DEC 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 DEC 026/026 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 DEC 004/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 DEC-17 DEC 010/010-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 DEC to 17 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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